Monday Night Football – Week 8

Indiannapolis Colts at Tennese Titans.

Tennese entered the match with a 6-0 record matched up against a 3-3 Indianapolis team. This was Tennesse’s opportunity to show that they are undefeated not because of an easy schedule, but because they are the real deal.

During the first half and during the earliest minutes of the second it seemed that Peyton Manning might be able to start finding his rhythm. The half closed at 7-6 for the colts.

The turnaround came when the Titans completed a two point conversion to tie the game at 14-14. Their defense had two fourth down turnovers and from there it was all Titans.

My record in handicapped NFL picks is now 6-3 with today’s pick of Tennese -4.

NFL

Thanks to centsports something very unexpected has happened. I actually like American football now.

I have always stayed away from it for numerous reasons. The most obvious one was the amount of time wasted watching commercials. Now I can see how this can be a positive thing. Intermittent commercials make the game watching experienced relaxed. In a soccer match there is no time for a quick bathroom break or a snack run; the match is uninterrupted.

The math-geek in me also loves the stats-centered nature of the game as opposed to soccer and tennis, sports that I play. Predicting games based on a wide range of available statistics and then watching them has proved to be enjoyable the past two weeks.

This is my second week of NFL bets on centsports and so far my record is 5-3 on handicapped picks as well as over/unders on centsports. Starting next week I will also pick winners for every game and keep track of my record. It should be fun to compare my record against the “experts”.

Final Debate Response

It has become increasingly clear, as my last post explained, just how much Obama is in control of this election. This final debate showed no signs of changing the situation. Obama’s intrade price reached 84% after the debate; the market has spoken on the effects of the debate.

The debate tonight did absolutely nothing to increase McCain’s chance of winning. This was his last free opportunity to impress the american people on a big stage. His performance was not bad, but as in the other debates, he did not dominate. Anything short of dominating is simply not going to better his chances at this point.

As a biased observer, McCain’s snarky comments and random laughs became increasingly annoying. McCain’s frustration was palpable and at this point, expected. He is frustrated about the inefficacy of his campaign. This frustration, however expected, does not portray the qualities of a good leader.

The McCain campaign faces a dilemma. They can either do nothing, letting the election slip away completely, or go on the offensive, alienating the american people. The end result is clear, only a game changing unknown, epic in scale, can swing the momentum back to John McCain.

Election Forecast

Obama, according to bettors on Intrade, has a 78% chance of becoming the 44th President of the United States. This is a perfectly fair valuation of the current situation. I do admit that I am an Obama supporter, but I do not believe this has any effect on my analysis.

By now it has become clear that Obama will likely carry all of the 2004 John kerry states. There remain around five swing states that could go either way. Right now Obama is leading, albeit not by much, in nearly all of them. What this means for John McCain is that while Obama has to win only one of the swing states, McCain has to win them all. Current polling suggests that this is a nearly insurmountable task.

In the national polls, Obama holds a very telling lead of at least six percent. There is historical precedent of a candidate overcoming such a lead in less than a month, but since 1936 it has been done only once, by Ronald Reagan.

There are some valid reasons why Obama is not trading at 90, all of them stemming in one way or another from the lack of historical precedent for the events of this election. The possibility of an african-american president has brought focus to the phenomenom known as the Bradley effect. It essentially postulates that a black candidate will underperform due to the social stigma of appearing racist in public. There is no clear evidence that the Bradley effect had a significant impact during the primaries and likewise there is no evidence that it will have effect in November. In any case the Bradley effect will negated by the record number of african-american voters expected to cast their vote, many for the first time.

Centsports

After being frustrated by the absurd internet gambling laws in the United States that prevented me from funding my Intrade account, I began to look at alternatives. I soon realized about a wesite a friend told me about called centsports.

Centsports is a sports betting website in which you are given 10 cents to bet with. The money you earn is paid for by the advertisers, although you can only cash out if you have more than 20 dollars in your account. When your balance is low, the advertisers will also give you up to 100% increases in your first few bets. If your balance ever dips below 10 cents you have the option of starting from 10 again.

I have gone through the forums to look at how reliable the cashout system has been. It seems that for the most part the checks do come pretty reliably, but there are some exceptions.

They have a variety of sports in which you can make bets. Everything from football, baseball, soccer, hockey, to motor sports and mixed martial arts.

So far I have 42 cents. I should have 54 cents once Tommy Robredo wins his match.